Since last month, protestors have been taking to the streets of Mali’s capital Bamako in mass demonstrations demanding that President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta resign. After seven years in power, IBK has failed to contain the increasing jihadist attacks and inter-communal violence that have been taking place in northern and central parts of the country.

Although his time in power has not been peaceful, several analysts are saying that these protests are the most serious threat IBK has faced since coming into power a year after a military coup led the way for extremist groups to take control of large areas of Mali’s desert.

Last weekend, at least 11 demonstrators were killed and another 158 were injured during protests in the capital, making organizers call for mass civil disobedience until IBK steps down. On Friday, there will be a “ceremony of sacrifice and of prayer” for victims.

“We are convinced that President IBK has neither the intellectual nor the physical capacity to lead the country. He who asked for us to get killed is no longer our President.”

Opposition leader Mountaga Toll

The protests calling for IBK to resign began last month, however there has been plenty political tension since a disputed legislative election back in March. In an extremely controversial move that very much benefitted Keita’s party, the country’s constitutional court reversed some of the votes.

During these elections, suspected jihadists took Mali’s main opposition leader, Soumaïla Cisse, hostage. Cisse was campaigning for the legislative elections, elections that had been postponed several times because of insecurity around the country.

Back in 2018, Keïta was re-elected to serve a second five-year term, yet in his now seven years of power, there has been no withering of extremist attacks linked to al-Qaeda or of inter-communal violence.

The US-based Carter Centre acts as an independent observer of a 2015 peace agreement between the government and northern armed groups that launched a rebellion 8 years ago. According to the Centre, the agreement has seen a steady decline.

Ibrahim Maïga, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, has said that the current protests are no longer about one specific situation, rather they have “grown to encompass a broader set of concerns among Malians.” However he does say that one of the most common issues people are protesting is the previously mentioned deterioration of the security situation around Mali.

Analysts continued to cite a declining economy, outrage at the government’s response to the Coronavirus pandemic, and even claims of questionable spending. The latter refers to the acquisition of military equipment, and Keïta and his allies’ purchase of a $40 million presidential jet.

Last Thursday, Keïta proposed a government of national unity in a televised speech. He went on to say that he was open to fulfilling certain opposition demands, such as fresh elections and the dissolution of Mali’s National Assembly.

Following multiple discussions last weekend between Keïta and the main protest alliance (M5-RFP), opposition leaders seemingly rejected IBK’s offer.

In these discussions, solutions were proposed by IBK yet M5-RFP stood its ground, according to Mohamed Salía Touré. “The objective remains the same: the resignation of the President of the Republic.”

The whole protest movement is constituted by many civil society and opposition groups, and it is fronted by the Muslim cleric Mahmoud Dicko. Dicko spent over 10 years as President of Mali’s High Islamic Council and is a known former ally of Keïta.

Due to the fact that in the past Dicko opposed sex education in schools and the “promotion” of homosexuality, the president of Mali’s National Assembly, Moussa Timbiné, has said that “many who march are with the jihadists.”

On the other hand, experts are saying that M5-RFP’s demands are clearly political, even including the preservation of state secularism. They also say that the ability that Dicko has to bring protestors onto the streets shows a wish for a political alternative in the country.

“It is the bankruptcy of the political class which explains [Dicko’s] rise. The imam taps into social frustrations and has become the moral guarantor of the struggle [against the government].”

Brema Ely Dicko, sociologist from the University of Bamako

Brema goes on to explain that some of M5-RFP’s demands are perceived as an “institutional coup” by Keïta, and they will probably not be met. One of the demands includes M5-RFP appointing a prime minister that the president can not dismiss, and reducing Keïta’s status to “honorary president.”

Recently, West African neighbors have tried to mediate the conflict, starting with envoys led by former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan that were scheduled to arrive on Wednesday.

Additionally, representatives from the Economic Community of West African States are attempting to bridge seemingly irreconcilable differences between IBK and M5-RFP.

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